Tender is the Noun?

The problem, as I argued back in March 2008, wasn’t the increase in business, but who would get it. The huge advances in CNC technology meant that fabricating a kitchen could be done on a huge assembly-line basis (remember that once-hot catchphrase, continuous production?), getting more and more finished stone into the market.

Moving to the factory concept, however, would also put the squeeze on all but the smallest and largest fabricators; the shop of 10 employees or less could concentrate on serving a small customer base, and the behemoths of the trade already operated on a factory level.

Most stone shops operate in-between, and would be forced to expand service areas, invest heavily in equipment, and lower prices to compete – or sell off as investors came in and created large, multi-location corporations, The entrepreneurial, craft-oriented trade of the past would be lost.

Everything went right to the edge of that transition before the economy – and the stone market – went right off the rails. Most of us didn’t see it at the time, but the first whistle blew in the spring of 2007 at StonExpo East in Atlanta, where a show that should’ve been a sure thing felt a little empty, and big stacks of orders written during the event went unfilled. It wasn’t the fault of the show; it was the economy.

Since then, it’s been a ride on a carousel going faster and faster, wobbling wildly and requiring fingernails to keep holding onto the ride, lest you get thrown to the wolves. The last ones into the market – the big-spenders setting up brand-new, large-scale fabrication centers – were the first to fly off, dispersing a debris field of used high-ticket equipment that depressed the stone-machinery market worldwide. Hundreds of thousands of tons of stone glutted the market, depressing export prices.

It’s hard to glean any good news from that. As we roll into 2011, though, we’ve the makings of a better industry, even if it’s a bit woozy as the merry-go-round slows to a normal speed.

The industry may be smaller than, say, five years ago, but the structure remains relatively the same. The huge facilities still deal mainly with a wholesale, and not retail business; the mainstay of the trade remains the strong mid-sized shop offering custom work. There’s still the specter of lowball operators, but they’re not operating three full CNC lines 24/7 and shipping countertops halfway across the United States.

The oversupply of barely-used equipment is settling out, as the machinery finds plenty of homes in U.S. stone shops. Yes, it’s a discount upgrade, but it’s bringing the equipment-manufacturing field back into equilibrium – and shops have newer equipment to offer more-efficient and -economical operations.

That leads to another point I made in March 2008:

This is no time to stand still, but it’s a period for making some long-term decisions. You’ll still need to plan for growth, but you can do it with an eye on more-realistic supply-and-demand, instead of the megashop across the city.

Those aren’t words anywhere near-enough ripe to eat. Those are words to still grow on. Let’s keep cultivating a changed – but profitable – future.

And, a quick-but-very-heartfelt wish for all the best to Jason Nottestad, who’s wrapping up his column for us this month. We’re all going to miss his insights into the trade … and I’m going to miss a guy who, in five years, offered quality work and didn’t miss one deadline. It doesn’t get any better than that for an editor.

Emerson Schwartzkopf can be reached at emerson@stonebusiness.net. You can read his blog here at Stone Business Online. And don’t forget to keep up with Stone Business on Twitter and Facebook.

This article first appeared in the January 2011 print edition of Stone Business magazine. ©2011 Western Business Media Inc.

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